EPA has released updated draft projections of energy impacts from key state energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) policies not captured in the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). These policies include:
- Energy Efficiency Resource Standards (EERS) and EE funding policies that reduce electricity demand through the use of energy efficient equipment, technologies and practices, and
- Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements beyond what is assumed in AEO 2013
EPA encourages state representatives and other interested parties to submit comments on these draft projections. EPA will carefully consider all comments received, and will make appropriate changes to our analysis on the basis of your input. Please submit your comments by April 1, 2014.
Background: EPA and many states rely on the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) demand forecast for power sector modeling and emissions planning. The AEO forecast includes some EE/RE policies, but does not explicitly account for several key EE/RE policies currently “on the books” in many states. With this announcement, EPA is providing draft impact projections for these policies.
How These Projections Help States: States may use EPA’s EE/RE projections to quantify the associated emissions reductions, and then include these reductions in their SIP submittals. Jurisdictions not currently preparing a SIP but interested in better understanding the energy and emissions impacts of EE/RE policies may likewise use EPA’s methodology and estimates to identify strategies for staying in attainment with the NAAQS.
Input Requested: EPA is requesting comments on its draft impact projections and supporting documentation, including:
- Background and Methodology Document - explains EPA’s approach to projecting the impacts of “on the books” EE/RE policies that are not explicitly reflected in the EIA’s AEO 2013 electricity projections.
- Embedded Methodology Document – provides detail on EPA’s approach to identifying the fraction of total annual energy savings from state EE policies already embedded in AEO 2013.
- Annual Energy Savings and Generation Estimates – provides EPA’s numeric estimates of the policy impacts not explicitly accounted for in AEO 2013 forecast, as determined by applying the previous two documents to the current EE/RE policy landscape in the United States.
Key Questions: EPA encourages state representatives and other interested parties to submit comment on the draft resources described above. The following questions are provided to help guide your review:
- Is EPA’s description of EE/RE policies currently “on the books” in your state accurate, and are the energy impact projections reasonable? If not, what changes are needed?
- Is EPA’s overall approach to projecting energy and peak demand impacts from state EE/RE policies analytically sound and consistent with industry practice? Why or why not?
- Are there uncertainties, issues, or limitations related to estimating EE/RE impacts that are not identified and addressed in this analysis? If so, what are they?
- Are the EE/RE projections presented in a clear and understandable way, given that the key audiences include both air and energy regulators? If not, what changes are needed?
- Do you have suggestions for modifying or improving the ways that EPA makes its impact projections available for download, analysis, and manipulation by the states?
Questions? Contact EPA by email.